| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 60.2% | 34% | +26.1% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Draw or away | 84.4% | 59% | +25.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 79.2% | 45% | +34.6% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.6% | 76% | -18.4% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 23.0% | 23.6% | 53.4% |
| xgboost | 17.4% | 24.0% | 58.6% |
| logistic | 5.8% | 8.8% | 85.4% |
| VVV Venlo | AZ Alkmaar | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1329 | 1655 |
| Surface Elo | 1329 | 1655 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.33 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1979 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 4 W · 3 D |
| 09 Oct | A | Jong Ajax Amsterdam | 3 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Roda JC Kerkrade | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Volendam | 2 - 3 | L |
| 16 May | H | FC Emmen | 0 - 4 | L |
| 13 May | A | Ajax | 1 - 3 | L |
| 15 Oct | H | Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Feyenoord | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Feyenoord | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | FC Den Bosch | 0 - 1 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | Telstar | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Feb 2021 | VVV Venlo | 1 - 4 | AZ Alkmaar |
| 17 Oct 2020 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 - 2 | VVV Venlo |
| 01 Dec 2019 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 - 0 | VVV Venlo |
| 16 Feb 2019 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 - 0 | VVV Venlo |
| 25 Nov 2018 | VVV Venlo | 2 - 2 | AZ Alkmaar |
| 10 Feb 2018 | AZ Alkmaar | 0 - 0 | VVV Venlo |
| 03 Dec 2017 | VVV Venlo | 0 - 2 | AZ Alkmaar |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.90 | 34.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.15 | 46.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.31 | 76.3% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.33 | 30.0% | 16 Oct 06:15 |