| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 79.8% | 82% | -1.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 26.6% | 73.4% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 11.1% | 88.8% |
| logistic | 28.7% | 71.3% |
| Kei Nishikori | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1758 | 2033 |
| Surface Elo | 1758 | 2033 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 63 | 19 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 01 Oct | A | Frances Tiafoe | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Jul | H | Rafael Jodar | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Jul | A | Juncheng Shang | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Apr | A | Jack Kennedy | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Apr | A | Colton Smith | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Kei Nishikori | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Sep | A | Ben Shelton | 1 - 3 | L |
| 08 Sep | A | Alex Michelsen | 3 - 2 | W |
| 06 Sep | A | Daniil Medvedev | 3 - 0 | W |
| 04 Sep | H | Valentin Vacherot | 3 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct 2026 | Frances Tiafoe | 2 - 0 | Kei Nishikori |
| 22 Oct 2018 | Frances Tiafoe | 1 - 2 | Kei Nishikori |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.23 | 81.3% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.40 | 22.7% | 30 Sep 06:15 |