| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 61.7% | 74% | -12.7% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 87.0% | 92% | -4.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 82.4% | 89% | -6.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.2% | 74% | -12.4% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 50.5% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 17.6% | 22.8% | 59.6% |
| xgboost | 9.3% | 15.2% | 75.6% |
| logistic | 9.8% | 20.1% | 70.1% |
| Telstar | Feyenoord | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1490 | 1741 |
| Surface Elo | 1490 | 1741 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 0.75 | 2.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.88 | 3.38 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.75 | 0.88 |
| Rest days | 6 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 11 Oct | H | Den Haag | 2 - 2 | D |
| 11 Oct | H | Den Haag | 2 - 2 | D |
| 20 Sep | A | AZ Alkmaar | 0 - 1 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | AZ Alkmaar | 0 - 1 | L |
| 13 Sep | A | Heerenveen | 0 - 0 | D |
| 14 Oct | H | Como | 3 - 2 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | AZ Alkmaar | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | AZ Alkmaar | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Utrecht | 5 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Utrecht | 5 - 0 | W |
| 22 Feb 2026 | Feyenoord | 2 - 1 | Telstar |
| 30 Nov 2025 | Telstar | 1 - 2 | Feyenoord |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 1.33 | 75.2% | 17 Oct 19:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 5.25 | 19.1% | 17 Oct 19:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 7.50 | 13.3% | 17 Oct 19:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.36 | 73.5% | 17 Oct 19:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.10 | 32.3% | 17 Oct 19:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.36 | 73.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 5.96 | 16.8% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 7.90 | 12.7% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.39 | 71.9% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.10 | 32.3% | 17 Oct 06:15 |