| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 64.7% | 55% | +9.6% |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 50.5% | 49.3% |
| logistic | 71.7% | 28.3% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Goncalo Marques | Tiago Cacao | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1492 | 1387 |
| Surface Elo | 1492 | 1387 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 2 | 25 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W 路 0 D |
| 10 Nov | A | Eero Vasa | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Nov | H | Makhlouf, Nazim | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Carlos Taberner | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Duje Ajdukovic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Nov | H | Goncalo Da Rosa Castro | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Andrej Martin | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Sergi Perez Contri | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Olle Wallin | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Milos Karol | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.86 | 53.8% | 12 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.84 | 54.4% | 12 Nov 06:15 |