| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.1% | 55% | +0.4% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 57.1% | 42.9% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| logistic | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | Adrian Mannarino | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1831 | 1777 |
| Surface Elo | 1831 | 1777 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.75 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.44 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.11 |
| Rest days | 5 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | H | Facundo Diaz Acosta | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Facundo Diaz Acosta | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Rafael Jodar | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Rafael Jodar | 1 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | H | Hamad Medjedovic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | A | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | H | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct | H | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Oct | H | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Aleksandar Vukic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Aug 2026 | Adrian Mannarino | 3 - 2 | Thiago Agustin Tirante |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.05 | 48.8% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.83 | 54.6% | 24 Oct 06:15 |