| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 44.6% | 38% | +6.6% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 74.3% | 82% | -8.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 57.1% | 52% | +5.1% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.1% | 60% | -4.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 32.6% | 29.1% | 38.3% |
| xgboost | 41.1% | 28.7% | 30.2% |
| logistic | 46.1% | 27.3% | 26.6% |
| Rodez | Montpellier | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1491 | 1513 |
| Surface Elo | 1491 | 1513 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.50 |
| Season points per game | 0.88 | 1.88 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.75 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.25 | 0.63 |
| Rest days | 9 | 9 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | A | St Etienne | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 Sep | H | Nancy | 3 - 4 | L |
| 11 Sep | H | Grenoble | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Metz | 1 - 4 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | Pau FC | 2 - 2 | D |
| 09 Oct | H | Grenoble | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Grenoble | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Sep | A | Reims | 1 - 1 | D |
| 11 Sep | H | Pau FC | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | St Etienne | 1 - 3 | L |
| 20 Feb 2026 | Rodez | 1 - 0 | Montpellier |
| 31 Oct 2025 | Montpellier | 2 - 0 | Rodez |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.10 | 47.6% | 19 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 19 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.88 | 34.7% | 19 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.60 | 62.5% | 19 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 19 Oct 19:45 |