| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 47.4% | 47% | +0.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 74.0% | 77% | -3.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 61.8% | 64% | -2.4% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.2% | 58% | +8.4% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 63.8% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 29.4% | 25.2% | 45.4% |
| xgboost | 29.2% | 33.0% | 37.8% |
| logistic | 29.2% | 28.2% | 42.6% |
| Mantova | Palermo | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1500 | 1615 |
| Surface Elo | 1500 | 1615 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 6 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 3 D |
| 11 Oct | A | Catanzaro | 3 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Catanzaro | 3 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Pisa | 2 - 2 | D |
| 20 Sep | H | Pisa | 2 - 2 | D |
| 13 Sep | H | Sampdoria | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Empoli | 4 - 2 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Empoli | 4 - 2 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Padova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Padova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Bari | 2 - 2 | D |
| 04 Mar 2026 | Palermo | 2 - 1 | Mantova |
| 11 Jan 2026 | Mantova | 1 - 1 | Palermo |
| 16 Feb 2025 | Palermo | 2 - 2 | Mantova |
| 30 Oct 2024 | Mantova | 0 - 0 | Palermo |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.15 | 46.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.25 | 30.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.73 | 57.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.05 | 48.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |