| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 63.2% | 62% | +0.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 35.7% | 64.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 44.2% | 55.7% |
| logistic | 36.2% | 63.8% |
| Joel Schwaerzler | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1613 | 1748 |
| Surface Elo | 1613 | 1748 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 0.44 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 02 Oct | A | Lucas Poullain | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Harry Wendelken | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Alberto Barroso Campos | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Lucas Poullain | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Clement Tabur | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Gauthier Onclin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Pierre Hugues Herbert | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Clement Chidekh | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Joel Schwaerzler | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Joel Schwaerzler | 0 - 2 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.60 | 62.5% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 03 Oct 06:15 |