OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-09-16
🇪🇸 La Liga · Wednesday 16 September 2026, 17:00 UTC · finished
Atlético Madrid 2.00 4 - 0 1.40 Osasuna
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 86.2%71%+14.9%✓ hit
DCHome or away 80.8%81%+0.0%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 74.8%86%-10.8%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 71.8%58%+13.7%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 65.7%33%+32.4%✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson43.4%25.0%30.9%
xgboost72.9%12.4%14.7%
logistic64.9%19.5%15.6%
Inputs the models saw
Atlético MadridOsasuna
Elo (pre-match)17341568
Surface Elo17341568
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.001.40
Form trend0.100.50
Season points per game3.001.50
Season goals for / game3.001.50
Season goals against / game0.001.50
Rest days24
Head-to-head (last 10)8 W2 W · 0 D
Atlético Madrid: last 5
13 SepASociedad3 - 0W
05 SepAAthletic Club0 - 3L
29 AugASevilla3 - 1W
23 AugHVillarreal2 - 2D
19 AugHMalaga2 - 0W
Osasuna: last 5
12 SepHEspanol0 - 2L
06 SepAAlaves2 - 5L
31 AugHGetafe1 - 0W
27 AugACelta2 - 1W
24 AugHLevante0 - 0D
Head to head
12 May 2026Osasuna1 - 2Atlético Madrid
18 Oct 2025Atlético Madrid1 - 0Osasuna
15 May 2025Osasuna2 - 0Atlético Madrid
12 Jan 2025Atlético Madrid1 - 0Osasuna
19 May 2024Atlético Madrid1 - 4Osasuna
28 Sep 2023Osasuna0 - 2Atlético Madrid
21 May 2023Atlético Madrid3 - 0Osasuna
29 Jan 2023Osasuna0 - 1Atlético Madrid
19 Feb 2022Osasuna0 - 3Atlético Madrid
20 Nov 2021Atlético Madrid1 - 0Osasuna
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away10.0010.0%16 Sep 18:00
Bet3651X2draw5.5018.2%16 Sep 18:00
Bet3651X2home1.3076.9%16 Sep 18:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.5763.7%16 Sep 18:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.3842.0%16 Sep 18:00
SportyBet1X2away8.1212.3%16 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw5.1819.3%16 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.4270.4%16 Sep 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.7258.1%16 Sep 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.2045.5%16 Sep 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 21:36 UTC