OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-16

🎾 tennis_atp_shanghai_masters · Friday 16 October 2026, 10:00 UTC · scheduled

Daniil Medvedev 2.40 10:00 1.80 Tommy Paul

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	69.7%	69%	+0.7%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	73.9%	26.1%
logistic	60.6%	39.4%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Daniil Medvedev	Tommy Paul
Elo (pre-match)	2073	1995
Surface Elo	2073	1995
Form, last 5 (PPG)	2.40	1.80
Form trend	-0.30	-0.90
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	2	1
Head-to-head (last 10)	4 W	1 W · 0 D

Daniil Medvedev: last 5

16 Oct	H	Tommy Paul	2 - 1	W
14 Oct	H	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2 - 0	W
14 Oct	H	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2 - 0	W
12 Oct	H	Dalibor Svrcina	2 - 0	W
12 Oct	A	Dalibor Svrcina	2 - 0	W

Tommy Paul: last 5

16 Oct	A	Daniil Medvedev	1 - 2	L
14 Oct	H	Zizou Bergs	2 - 0	W
14 Oct	H	Zizou Bergs	2 - 0	W
12 Oct	H	Valentin Vacherot	2 - 0	W
12 Oct	H	Valentin Vacherot	2 - 0	W

Head to head

16 Oct 2026	Daniil Medvedev	2 - 1	Tommy Paul
03 Mar 2025	Daniil Medvedev	2 - 0	Tommy Paul
06 May 2024	Daniil Medvedev	0 - 2	Tommy Paul
04 Mar 2024	Daniil Medvedev	2 - 1	Tommy Paul
27 Sep 2023	Daniil Medvedev	2 - 0	Tommy Paul
31 May 2021	Daniil Medvedev	3 - 1	Tommy Paul

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
1xBet	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.45	69.0%	16 Oct 06:01
1xBet	h2h	Tommy Paul	2.84	35.2%	16 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.44	69.4%	16 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Tommy Paul	2.75	36.4%	16 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.42	70.4%	16 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Tommy Paul	3.00	33.3%	16 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.48	67.6%	16 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Tommy Paul	3.00	33.3%	16 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Daniil Medvedev	1.50	66.7%	16 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Tommy Paul	3.10	32.3%	16 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.42	70.4%	16 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Tommy Paul	3.00	33.3%	16 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.44	69.4%	16 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Tommy Paul	2.80	35.7%	16 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.44	69.4%	16 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Tommy Paul	2.80	35.7%	16 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.43	69.9%	16 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Tommy Paul	2.81	35.6%	16 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.44	69.4%	16 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Tommy Paul	2.75	36.4%	16 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.43	69.9%	16 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Tommy Paul	2.80	35.7%	16 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.48	67.6%	16 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Tommy Paul	3.00	33.3%	16 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Daniil Medvedev	1.50	66.7%	16 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Tommy Paul	3.10	32.3%	16 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.44	69.4%	16 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Tommy Paul	2.80	35.7%	16 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.45	69.0%	16 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Tommy Paul	2.99	33.4%	16 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.40	71.4%	16 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Tommy Paul	2.63	38.0%	16 Oct 06:01
SportyBet	1X2	away	2.85	35.1%	16 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.45	69.0%	16 Oct 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.40	71.4%	16 Oct 06:01
Tipico	h2h	Tommy Paul	2.90	34.5%	16 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.40	71.4%	16 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Tommy Paul	2.95	33.9%	16 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.44	69.4%	16 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Tommy Paul	2.75	36.4%	16 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.44	69.4%	16 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Tommy Paul	2.75	36.4%	16 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.44	69.4%	16 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Tommy Paul	2.75	36.4%	16 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.46	68.5%	16 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Tommy Paul	2.85	35.1%	16 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.43	69.9%	16 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Tommy Paul	2.80	35.7%	16 Oct 06:01

Generated 2026-10-30 15:01 UTC