| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 74.4% | 78% | -3.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 63.3% | 36.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 70.6% | 29.2% |
| logistic | 71.3% | 28.7% |
| Alex Michelsen | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1932 | 1791 |
| Surface Elo | 1932 | 1791 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.62 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.10 | 1.15 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 09 Nov | H | Yannick Hanfmann | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Nov | H | Carlos Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Nov | H | Carlos Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Nov | H | Jiri Lehecka | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Nov | H | Jiri Lehecka | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Nov | A | Elias Ymer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Nov | A | Elias Ymer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Nov | A | Casper Ruud | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Nov | A | Casper Ruud | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Nov | H | Miomir Kecmanovic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 May 2025 | Alex Michelsen | 0 - 3 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.75 | 26.7% | 10 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.29 | 77.5% | 10 Nov 06:15 |