| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.9% | 46% | +6.0% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 77.2% | 70% | +6.8% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 68.2% | 60% | +7.8% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.7% | 69% | -10.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 55.6% | 22.4% | 22.0% |
| xgboost | 46.0% | 28.1% | 26.0% |
| logistic | 49.5% | 24.7% | 25.8% |
| Manchester City | Paris Saint Germain | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1942 | 1864 |
| Surface Elo | 1942 | 1864 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.70 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 11 Oct | A | Liverpool | 3 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Liverpool | 3 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Sunderland | 5 - 3 | W |
| 13 Sep | A | Manchester United | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | H | Coventry | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Le Mans | 3 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Le Mans | 3 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Marseille | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Sep | A | Brest | 1 - 0 | W |
| 04 Sep | H | Monaco | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.30 | 30.3% | 14 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.07 | 24.6% | 14 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.12 | 47.2% | 14 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.45 | 69.0% | 14 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.85 | 35.1% | 14 Oct 06:15 |