| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 49.0% | 45% | +4.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 74.5% | 75% | -0.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 62.6% | 62% | +0.5% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.0% | 52% | +2.5% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 53.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 34.8% | 27.3% | 38.0% |
| xgboost | 26.4% | 31.2% | 42.4% |
| logistic | 31.2% | 27.2% | 41.7% |
| Lorient | Paris FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1630 | 1716 |
| Surface Elo | 1630 | 1716 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Rest days | 21 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 2 W · 3 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Le Mans | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Toulouse | 2 - 2 | D |
| 05 Sep | A | Lens | 1 - 0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | Troyes | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | Nice | 0 - 0 | D |
| 03 Oct | A | Concarneau | 1 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Bastia | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Strasbourg | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Bourg Peronnas | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Lyon | 0 - 0 | D |
| 05 Apr 2026 | Lorient | 1 - 1 | Paris FC |
| 03 Oct 2025 | Paris FC | 2 - 0 | Lorient |
| 08 Mar 2025 | Paris FC | 3 - 2 | Lorient |
| 14 Dec 2024 | Lorient | 2 - 0 | Paris FC |
| 29 Jul 2019 | Lorient | 3 - 0 | Paris FC |
| 15 Apr 2019 | Paris FC | 2 - 2 | Lorient |
| 09 Nov 2018 | Lorient | 2 - 1 | Paris FC |
| 06 Apr 2018 | Lorient | 2 - 0 | Paris FC |
| 03 Nov 2017 | Paris FC | 1 - 1 | Lorient |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.10 | 47.6% | 10 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 10 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.70 | 27.0% | 10 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.20 | 45.5% | 10 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.67 | 59.9% | 10 Oct 19:45 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.26 | 44.2% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.52 | 28.4% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.40 | 29.4% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.92 | 52.1% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.93 | 51.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |