| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 50.3% | 48% | +2.7% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| logistic | failed: ValueError | |
| xgboost | failed: ValueError | |
| Pavel Kotov | Bernard Tomic | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1668 | 1636 |
| Surface Elo | 1668 | 1636 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 12 | 12 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 18 Sep | H | Rio Noguchi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Sep | H | Akira Santillan | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Sep | A | Shintaro Mochizuki | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep | A | Marat Sharipov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Bernard Tomic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Sep | H | Binda, Alexander | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Sep | H | Jake Delaney | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Sep | H | Kikuchi, Yuta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep | H | Pavel Kotov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Alexandr Binda | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Bernard Tomic | 0 - 2 | Pavel Kotov |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.10 | 47.6% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.68 | 59.5% | 19 Sep 06:16 |