| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 49.2% | 43% | +5.7% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 74.1% | 74% | +0.3% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 63.4% | 61% | +2.6% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.4% | 60% | +0.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 56.9% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 30.9% | 30.8% | 38.3% |
| xgboost | 48.3% | 29.0% | 22.7% |
| logistic | 44.4% | 28.8% | 26.8% |
| Shrewsbury | Exeter | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1386 | 1406 |
| Surface Elo | 1386 | 1406 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 0.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 0.33 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 3 W · 2 D |
| 06 Oct | H | Stockport | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Grimsby | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Grimsby | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Colchester | 2 - 2 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | Colchester | 2 - 2 | D |
| 06 Oct | H | Oxford | 2 - 2 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | Rotherham | 1 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Rotherham | 1 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Bristol Rovers | 0 - 1 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Bristol Rvs | 0 - 1 | L |
| 08 Mar 2025 | Exeter | 2 - 0 | Shrewsbury |
| 17 Oct 2024 | Shrewsbury | 0 - 2 | Exeter |
| 12 Mar 2024 | Shrewsbury | 0 - 3 | Exeter |
| 28 Nov 2023 | Exeter | 0 - 0 | Shrewsbury |
| 14 Feb 2023 | Exeter | 0 - 0 | Shrewsbury |
| 13 Sep 2022 | Shrewsbury | 3 - 2 | Exeter |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.10 | 32.3% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.30 | 43.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.15 | 46.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.66 | 60.2% | 09 Oct 06:15 |