| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 69.1% | 74% | -5.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 73.2% | 26.7% |
| logistic | 61.2% | 38.8% |
| Luis "Guto" Miguel | Murkel Dellien | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1559 | 1480 |
| Surface Elo | 1559 | 1480 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 0.80 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 1.20 |
| Rest days | 11 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | A | Hugo Dellien | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Maximo Zeitune | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Murkel Dellien | 1 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Pedro Boscardin Dias | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Joao Eduardo Schiessl | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Luis "Guto" Miguel | 0 - 1 | L |
| 07 Oct | A | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Juan Estevez | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Juan Estevez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Luis "Guto" Miguel | 1 - 0 | Murkel Dellien |
| 28 Apr 2025 | Luis "Guto" Miguel | 1 - 2 | Murkel Dellien |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.05 | 32.8% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.35 | 74.1% | 13 Oct 06:15 |