OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-17
⚽ Serie B · Saturday 17 October 2026, 13:00 UTC · finished
Padova 0.80 1 - 2 1.20 Virtus Entella
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 43.9%42%+2.1%✗ miss
DCHome or away 72.0%75%-3.1%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 56.6%60%-3.7%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 55.6%60%-4.6%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS no 51.1%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson42.0%32.7%25.3%
xgboost31.8%31.8%36.5%
logistic33.1%30.2%36.8%
Inputs the models saw
PadovaVirtus Entella
Elo (pre-match)14091385
Surface Elo14091385
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.801.20
Form trend0.20-0.20
Season points per game1.171.00
Season goals for / game0.831.33
Season goals against / game1.331.17
Rest days57
Head-to-head (last 10)1 W1 W · 0 D
Padova: last 5
11 OctHCarrarese0 - 2L
11 OctHCarrarese0 - 2L
10 OctHSampdoria Genoa0 - 4L
19 SepAPalermo1 - 2L
19 SepAPalermo1 - 2L
Virtus Entella: last 5
17 OctHVicenza1 - 1D
10 OctHJuve Stabia1 - 1D
10 OctHJuve Stabia1 - 1D
19 SepACremonese0 - 0D
19 SepACremonese0 - 0D
Head to head
19 Sep 2026Virtus Entella4 - 1Padova
25 Apr 2026Virtus Entella1 - 0Padova
21 Sep 2025Padova2 - 1Virtus Entella
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away2.7536.4%17 Oct 14:00
Bet3651X2draw3.0033.3%17 Oct 14:00
Bet3651X2home2.5040.0%17 Oct 14:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over2.2544.4%17 Oct 14:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under1.6261.7%17 Oct 14:00
SportyBet1X2away3.0033.3%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.0033.3%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.5040.0%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over2.2045.5%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.6560.6%17 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 15:55 UTC