| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 61.0% | 37% | +23.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 36.0% | 64.0% |
| logistic | 39.1% | 60.9% |
| Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | Alex Barrena | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1527 | 1641 |
| Surface Elo | 1527 | 1641 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.57 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.57 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.25 | 0.43 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 25 Sep | H | Juan Pablo Varillas | 1 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | A | Francisco Comesana | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Carlos Maria Zarate | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Mateo Del Pino | 1 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Alex Barrena | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | A | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | Juan Pablo Ficovich | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Garay, Valentin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Facundo Mena | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Alex Barrena | 2 - 0 | Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.70 | 37.0% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.44 | 69.4% | 26 Sep 06:15 |