| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 44.8% | 35% | +9.9% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 74.8% | 73% | +1.9% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 56.2% | 50% | +6.7% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.6% | 50% | +6.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 39.2% | 25.1% | 35.7% |
| xgboost | 34.6% | 30.4% | 35.0% |
| logistic | 37.9% | 27.6% | 34.5% |
| Elche | Celta | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1576 | 1626 |
| Surface Elo | 1576 | 1626 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 0.71 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.57 | 1.14 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.43 | 0.86 |
| Rest days | 22 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 5 W · 1 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Valencia | 4 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | UCAM Murcia | 1 - 5 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Yeclano Deportivo | 0 - 1 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | SCR Pena Deportiva | 1 - 0 | W |
| 18 Sep | A | Espanol | 3 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Santander | 5 - 0 | W |
| 13 Sep | H | Malaga | 1 - 1 | D |
| 07 Sep | A | Getafe | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Sep | A | Sociedad | 0 - 0 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | Athletic Club | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 May 2026 | Celta | 3 - 1 | Elche |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Elche | 2 - 1 | Celta |
| 26 Apr 2023 | Celta | 1 - 0 | Elche |
| 06 Jan 2023 | Elche | 0 - 1 | Celta |
| 15 May 2022 | Celta | 1 - 0 | Elche |
| 03 Oct 2021 | Elche | 1 - 0 | Celta |
| 12 Feb 2021 | Celta | 3 - 1 | Elche |
| 06 Nov 2020 | Elche | 1 - 1 | Celta |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.30 | 43.5% | 11 Oct 13:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.25 | 30.8% | 11 Oct 13:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.20 | 31.2% | 11 Oct 13:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.91 | 52.4% | 11 Oct 13:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.91 | 52.4% | 11 Oct 13:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.57 | 38.9% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.33 | 30.0% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.02 | 33.1% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.97 | 50.8% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.88 | 53.2% | 11 Oct 06:15 |