| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 60.5% | 60% | +0.6% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 33.7% | 66.2% |
| logistic | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| Alexander Bublik | Brandon Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1914 | 1966 |
| Surface Elo | 1914 | 1966 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 11 Oct | H | Brandon Nakashima | 2 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Tomas Machac | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Tomas Machac | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Jakub Mensik | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | H | Jakub Mensik | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Alexander Bublik | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Matteo Berrettini | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Matteo Berrettini | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Ugo Humbert | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | H | Ugo Humbert | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Alexander Bublik | 2 - 1 | Brandon Nakashima |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.67 | 59.9% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 10 Oct 06:15 |