| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 42.4% | 34% | +8.8% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 72.5% | 76% | -3.3% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 54.4% | 47% | +7.2% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.9% | 58% | +0.4% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 53.8% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 38.7% | 31.5% | 29.8% |
| xgboost | 33.5% | 31.4% | 35.0% |
| logistic | 37.6% | 29.0% | 33.4% |
| Gillingham | Port Vale | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1404 | 1430 |
| Surface Elo | 1404 | 1430 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.60 | 0.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.40 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Accrington | 1 - 3 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Accrington | 1 - 3 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Brighton & Hove Albion U21 | 4 - 3 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Rotherham | 4 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Rotherham | 4 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Chesterfield | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Chesterfield | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Grimsby | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Grimsby | 1 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Mansfield | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 May 2025 | Port Vale | 0 - 1 | Gillingham |
| 09 Nov 2024 | Gillingham | 1 - 0 | Port Vale |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.30 | 43.5% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.20 | 31.2% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.10 | 32.3% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.15 | 46.5% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.68 | 59.5% | 20 Oct 06:15 |