| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 69.1% | 81% | -11.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 80.9% | 19.0% |
| logistic | 58.6% | 41.4% |
| Lucas Poullain | Gijs Brouwer | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1599 | 1571 |
| Surface Elo | 1599 | 1571 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 8 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 02 Oct | H | Joel Schwaerzler | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Remy Bertola | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Mark Lajal | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Joel Schwaerzler | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Remy Bertola | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Trufelli, Timeo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | H | Titouan Droguet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | H | Matteo Martineau | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | Andres Martin | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | H | Lucas Poullain | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug 2026 | Gijs Brouwer | 0 - 2 | Lucas Poullain |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.80 | 26.3% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.24 | 80.7% | 11 Oct 06:15 |