OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-10-11

NFL · Sunday 11 October 2026, 17:00 UTC · finished

New England Patriots – 45 - 17 – Las Vegas Raiders

NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	74.3%	65%	+9.3%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
ensemble	74.3%	25.7%

Inputs the models saw

	New England Patriots	Las Vegas Raiders
playoff	0.00
elo diff	0.30
form diff	0.12
rest diff	0.02
home field	1.00
point diff	0.21
opponent strength diff	0.20
Information cutoff (UTC)	2026-10-10T17:00:00+00:00

New England Patriots: last 5

04 Oct	A	Buffalo Bills	29 - 26	W
27 Sep	A	Jacksonville Jaguars	6 - 35	L
20 Sep	H	Pittsburgh Steelers	20 - 3	W
10 Sep	A	Seattle Seahawks	10 - 13	L
08 Feb	H	Seattle Seahawks	13 - 29	L

Las Vegas Raiders: last 5

04 Oct	H	Kansas City Chiefs	27 - 30	L
27 Sep	A	New Orleans Saints	35 - 27	W
20 Sep	A	Los Angeles Chargers	26 - 14	W
13 Sep	H	Miami Dolphins	27 - 13	W
04 Jan	H	Kansas City Chiefs	14 - 12	W

Head to head

07 Sep 2025	New England Patriots	13 - 20	Las Vegas Raiders
15 Oct 2023	Las Vegas Raiders	21 - 17	New England Patriots
18 Dec 2022	Las Vegas Raiders	30 - 24	New England Patriots
27 Sep 2020	New England Patriots	36 - 20	Las Vegas Raiders

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	1.54	64.9%	11 Oct 12:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	2.61	38.3%	11 Oct 12:20

Generated 2026-10-30 18:16 UTC