OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-11
⚽ La Liga 2 · Sunday 11 October 2026, 14:15 UTC · finished
Almeria 3.00 3 - 0 0.80 Leganes
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 60.5%61%-0.7%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 87.1%87%-0.1%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 82.2%81%+1.3%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 54.3%48%+6.1%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS no 53.3%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson58.9%22.9%18.2%
xgboost73.8%19.0%7.2%
logistic66.5%22.5%11.0%
Inputs the models saw
AlmeriaLeganes
Elo (pre-match)15851428
Surface Elo15851428
Form, last 5 (PPG)3.000.80
Form trend0.000.20
Season points per game2.251.38
Season goals for / game1.630.75
Season goals against / game0.631.38
Rest days87
Head-to-head (last 10)3 W1 W · 2 D
Almeria: last 5
11 OctHAtletico Malagueno2 - 1W
03 OctHBurgos2 - 1W
03 OctHBurgos2 - 1W
27 SepAMallorca1 - 0W
27 SepAMallorca1 - 0W
Leganes: last 5
11 OctHCD Galapagar2 - 3L
04 OctACD Mostoles URJC1 - 1D
03 OctACadiz0 - 4L
03 OctACadiz0 - 4L
28 SepHCastellon0 - 2L
Head to head
05 Apr 2026Almeria2 - 1Leganes
22 Nov 2025Leganes0 - 3Almeria
29 May 2022Leganes2 - 2Almeria
29 Oct 2021Almeria1 - 0Leganes
27 Mar 2021Almeria1 - 1Leganes
17 Feb 2021Leganes2 - 1Almeria
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away5.0020.0%11 Oct 15:15
Bet3651X2draw3.5028.6%11 Oct 15:15
Bet3651X2home1.6859.5%11 Oct 15:15
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.8853.2%11 Oct 15:15
Bet365O/U 2.5under1.9351.8%11 Oct 15:15
SportyBet1X2away5.0020.0%11 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.0025.0%11 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.6461.0%11 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.7457.5%11 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.0548.8%11 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:10 UTC