| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 56.8% | 50% | +6.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 41.6% | 58.4% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 58.6% | 41.3% |
| logistic | 35.6% | 64.4% |
| Luca Nardi | Alexander Ritschard | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1675 | 1830 |
| Surface Elo | 1675 | 1830 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.20 | 1.86 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.14 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 08 Nov | H | Alexander Donski | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Jacob Fearnley | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 Oct | A | Michael Mmoh | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | August Holmgren | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Jacob Fearnley | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Nov | A | Ferdinand Livet Novkirichka | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | H | Svyatoslav Gulin | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Marco Trungelliti | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Sumit Nagal | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Raul Brancaccio | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.00 | 50.0% | 09 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.74 | 57.5% | 09 Nov 06:15 |