| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.4% | 69% | -16.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 44.9% | 55.0% |
| logistic | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| Pablo Llamas Ruiz | Luca Nardi | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1701 | 1626 |
| Surface Elo | 1701 | 1626 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 28 | 112 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | H | Pedro Martinez | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Petr Nesterov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Luca Nardi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Raul Brancaccio | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Kimmer Coppejans | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Pablo Llamas Ruiz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Jun | H | Remy Bertola | 1 - 2 | L |
| 08 Jun | A | Jacob Fearnley | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Jun | H | Remy Bertola | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Jun | H | Oriol Roca Batalla | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Luca Nardi | 0 - 2 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz |
| 29 May 2023 | Luca Nardi | 0 - 2 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.55 | 39.2% | 05 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.47 | 68.0% | 05 Oct 06:15 |