| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 45.1% | 36% | +8.8% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 76.3% | 74% | +2.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 59.1% | 51% | +8.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.2% | 49% | +1.1% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.1% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 45.1% | 23.7% | 31.2% |
| logistic | failed: ValueError | ||
| xgboost | failed: ValueError | ||
| Le Mans | Lorient | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1564 | 1647 |
| Surface Elo | 1564 | 1647 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.75 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 13 Sep | H | Lens | 2 - 2 | D |
| 05 Sep | A | Nice | 1 - 1 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | Rennes | 2 - 3 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | Brest | 2 - 2 | D |
| 09 May | A | Bastia | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Toulouse | 2 - 2 | D |
| 05 Sep | A | Lens | 1 - 0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | Troyes | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | Nice | 0 - 0 | D |
| 17 May | H | Le Havre | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Feb 2020 | Lorient | 4 - 2 | Le Mans |
| 23 Aug 2019 | Le Mans | 1 - 2 | Lorient |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.60 | 38.5% | 19 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.10 | 32.3% | 19 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.90 | 34.5% | 19 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.10 | 47.6% | 19 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.73 | 57.8% | 19 Sep 19:45 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.63 | 38.0% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.46 | 28.9% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.84 | 35.2% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.85 | 54.0% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 19 Sep 06:16 |