| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.3% | 60% | -2.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 84.3% | 85% | -0.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 78.1% | 79% | -0.7% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.5% | 60% | -2.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.5% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 54.3% | 24.6% | 21.1% |
| xgboost | 61.6% | 24.6% | 13.8% |
| logistic | 66.1% | 22.5% | 11.3% |
| Almeria | Leganes | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1585 | 1428 |
| Surface Elo | 1585 | 1428 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 8 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 1 W · 2 D |
| 11 Oct | H | Atletico Malagueno | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Burgos | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Burgos | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Mallorca | 1 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Mallorca | 1 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | CD Galapagar | 2 - 3 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | CD Mostoles URJC | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Oct | A | Cadiz | 0 - 4 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Cadiz | 0 - 4 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Castellon | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Apr 2026 | Almeria | 2 - 1 | Leganes |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Leganes | 0 - 3 | Almeria |
| 29 May 2022 | Leganes | 2 - 2 | Almeria |
| 29 Oct 2021 | Almeria | 1 - 0 | Leganes |
| 27 Mar 2021 | Almeria | 1 - 1 | Leganes |
| 17 Feb 2021 | Leganes | 2 - 1 | Almeria |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.80 | 20.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.66 | 60.2% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.66 | 60.2% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.15 | 46.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |