| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 54.0% | 52% | +1.9% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Draw or away | 79.9% | 80% | +0.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 72.0% | 70% | +1.9% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.1% | 48% | +5.5% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 25.5% | 22.6% | 51.9% |
| xgboost | 20.8% | 24.6% | 54.6% |
| logistic | 16.7% | 26.4% | 56.9% |
| Newport County | York | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1385 | 1654 |
| Surface Elo | 1385 | 1654 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.30 | 1.67 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.30 | 1.89 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.20 | 1.22 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Colchester | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Colchester | 1 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Plymouth | 2 - 2 | D |
| 03 Oct | A | Gillingham | 0 - 0 | D |
| 03 Oct | A | Gillingham | 0 - 0 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Northampton | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Northampton | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | Gillingham | 3 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Gillingham | 3 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Rotherham | 1 - 1 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.10 | 47.6% | 17 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 17 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.20 | 31.2% | 17 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.73 | 57.8% | 17 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.08 | 48.1% | 17 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.98 | 50.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.60 | 27.8% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.70 | 58.8% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 17 Oct 06:15 |