| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 51.7% | 43% | +9.1% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 35.7% | 64.3% |
| logistic | 61.8% | 38.2% |
| Yanaki Milev | Kirill Kivattsev | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1500 | 1452 |
| Surface Elo | 1500 | 1452 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 20 | 517 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 31 Aug | A | Georgii Kravchenko | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | Valerio Aboian | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | Juan Manuel La Serna | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | Ignacio Parisca Romera | 2 - 0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | Petr Nesterov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Apr | A | Eliakim Coulibaly | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Apr | H | Kris Van Wyk | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Apr | A | Aleksandre Bakshi | 1 - 2 | L |
| 16 Sep | A | Andrea Guerrieri | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Aug | H | Nino Serdarusic | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Apr 2024 | Kirill Kivattsev | 2 - 0 | Yanaki Milev |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.35 | 42.5% | 20 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.55 | 64.5% | 20 Sep 06:16 |