| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.1% | 56% | -4.1% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 79.8% | 86% | -6.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 70.8% | 77% | -6.7% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.4% | 54% | +3.4% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 52.8% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 51.0% | 29.1% | 19.8% |
| xgboost | 51.3% | 26.3% | 22.4% |
| logistic | 50.1% | 28.5% | 21.4% |
| Metz | Sochaux | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1465 | 1429 |
| Surface Elo | 1465 | 1429 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.25 | 1.38 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 0.63 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.38 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 4 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 2 D |
| 12 Oct | A | Dijon | 2 - 4 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Saint-Etienne | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | St Etienne | 2 - 2 | D |
| 14 Sep | A | Red Star | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Rodez | 4 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Boulogne | 1 - 1 | D |
| 09 Oct | H | Boulogne | 1 - 1 | D |
| 18 Sep | A | Laval | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Nantes | 1 - 0 | W |
| 04 Sep | A | Pau FC | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 May 2023 | Sochaux | 0 - 1 | Metz |
| 15 Oct 2022 | Metz | 0 - 0 | Sochaux |
| 11 Mar 2019 | Metz | 1 - 1 | Sochaux |
| 08 Oct 2018 | Sochaux | 1 - 2 | Metz |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.80 | 26.3% | 17 Oct 13:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.20 | 31.2% | 17 Oct 13:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.83 | 54.6% | 17 Oct 13:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.95 | 51.3% | 17 Oct 13:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.85 | 54.0% | 17 Oct 13:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.50 | 22.2% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.81 | 55.2% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.92 | 52.1% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.85 | 54.0% | 17 Oct 06:15 |