| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 51.8% | 62% | -10.3% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 45.9% | 54.0% |
| logistic | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| Pedro Martinez | Matteo Martineau | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1680 | 1699 |
| Surface Elo | 1680 | 1699 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.71 | 2.21 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.86 | 1.58 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.79 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 11 Nov | A | Jurij Rodionov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 14 Oct | H | Matej Dodig | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Matej Dodig | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Laslo Djere | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Pablo Llamas Ruiz | 1 - 0 | W |
| 11 Nov | H | Hugo Gaston | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Nov | A | Kilian Feldbausch | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Nov | A | Felix Gill | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Nov | A | Maxim Mrva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Nov | A | Adrian Andreev | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Jan 2026 | Matteo Martineau | 0 - 2 | Pedro Martinez |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.61 | 62.1% | 12 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 12 Nov 06:15 |