| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 66.4% | 79% | -13.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 63.7% | 36.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 74.8% | 25.2% |
| logistic | 64.8% | 35.2% |
| Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | Joao Eduardo Schiessl | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1612 | 1476 |
| Surface Elo | 1612 | 1476 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 6 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | A | Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Miguel Tobon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Pedro Boscardin Dias | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Joao Eduardo Schiessl | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Gonzalo Villanueva | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Alan Magadan | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Benjamin Torrealba | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Luis "Guto" Miguel | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Samuel Heredia | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Joao Eduardo Schiessl | 0 - 2 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo |
| 21 Oct 2024 | Joao Eduardo Schiessl | 1 - 2 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.60 | 27.8% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.26 | 79.4% | 06 Oct 06:15 |