| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 60.7% | 70% | -9.5% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 85.1% | 90% | -5.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 79.0% | 87% | -8.2% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.0% | 49% | +5.6% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 53.5% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 64.9% | 22.5% | 12.7% |
| xgboost | 68.1% | 19.1% | 12.8% |
| logistic | 72.0% | 17.8% | 10.2% |
| Arsenal | Leeds | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1928 | 1754 |
| Surface Elo | 1928 | 1754 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| Rest days | 20 | 19 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 7 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Brighton | 0 - 3 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Sunderland | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Sep | H | Chelsea | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | Aston Villa | 1 - 0 | W |
| 21 Aug | H | Coventry | 3 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Stockport | 3 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Tamworth | 0 - 1 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Barnsley | 4 - 3 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Crystal Palace | 0 - 0 | D |
| 14 Sep | H | Newcastle | 4 - 1 | W |
| 31 Jan 2026 | Leeds | 0 - 4 | Arsenal |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Arsenal | 5 - 0 | Leeds |
| 01 Apr 2023 | Arsenal | 4 - 1 | Leeds |
| 16 Oct 2022 | Leeds | 0 - 1 | Arsenal |
| 08 May 2022 | Arsenal | 2 - 1 | Leeds |
| 18 Dec 2021 | Leeds | 1 - 4 | Arsenal |
| 14 Feb 2021 | Arsenal | 4 - 2 | Leeds |
| 22 Nov 2020 | Leeds | 0 - 0 | Arsenal |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 8.00 | 12.5% | 10 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.75 | 21.1% | 10 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.40 | 71.4% | 10 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.80 | 55.6% | 10 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 10 Oct 12:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 7.82 | 12.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.96 | 20.2% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.45 | 69.0% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.79 | 55.9% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.05 | 48.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |