OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-09-27
⚽ Spain Segunda Federacion · Sunday 27 September 2026, 09:30 UTC · finished
Atlético Madrid 2.40 2 - 0 1.80 Real Madrid
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 44.1%36%+7.9%✗ miss
DCHome or away 73.3%82%-9.0%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 57.5%50%+8.0%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 56.1%54%+1.6%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 57.0%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson35.9%25.6%38.5%
xgboost38.5%29.4%32.2%
logistic34.3%26.7%39.0%
Inputs the models saw
Atlético MadridReal Madrid
Elo (pre-match)17591841
Surface Elo17591841
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.401.80
Form trend-0.300.30
Season points per game1.501.50
Season goals for / game1.501.50
Season goals against / game1.501.50
Rest days66
Head-to-head (last 10)4 W2 W · 4 D
Atlético Madrid: last 5
25 SepHVillarreal CF B1 - 3L
20 SepHReal Madrid2 - 1W
19 SepAHuesca0 - 0D
16 SepHOsasuna4 - 0W
13 SepASociedad3 - 0W
Real Madrid: last 5
23 SepAUE Sant Andreu1 - 1D
20 SepAAtlético Madrid1 - 2L
15 SepAElche3 - 2W
12 SepHVallecano4 - 1W
04 SepABetis0 - 1L
Head to head
20 Sep 2026Atlético Madrid2 - 1Real Madrid
22 Mar 2026Real Madrid3 - 2Atlético Madrid
27 Sep 2025Atlético Madrid5 - 2Real Madrid
08 Feb 2025Real Madrid1 - 1Atlético Madrid
29 Sep 2024Atlético Madrid1 - 1Real Madrid
04 Feb 2024Real Madrid1 - 1Atlético Madrid
24 Sep 2023Atlético Madrid3 - 1Real Madrid
25 Feb 2023Real Madrid1 - 1Atlético Madrid
18 Sep 2022Atlético Madrid1 - 2Real Madrid
08 May 2022Atlético Madrid1 - 0Real Madrid
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away2.7037.0%27 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.3330.0%27 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.2045.5%27 Sep 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.7756.5%27 Sep 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.9052.6%27 Sep 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:27 UTC