| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 74.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 32.3% | 67.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 18.8% | 81.1% |
| logistic | 18.6% | 81.4% |
| Casper Ruud | Carlos Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1960 | 2341 |
| Surface Elo | 1960 | 2341 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.91 | 2.79 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.45 | 1.79 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.82 | 0.36 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 6 W · 0 D |
| 07 Nov | A | Carlos Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Nov | H | Nuno Borges | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Nov | H | Nuno Borges | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Nov | A | Jan Lennard Struff | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Nov | H | Rodrigo Alujas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Nov | H | Casper Ruud | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Nov | A | Taylor Fritz | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Nov | H | Taylor Fritz | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Nov | A | Matteo Berrettini | 1 - 0 | W |
| 04 Nov | A | Alex Michelsen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 0 | Casper Ruud |
| 12 Mar 2026 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 0 | Casper Ruud |
| 24 Sep 2025 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 1 | Casper Ruud |
| 11 Nov 2024 | Carlos Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | Casper Ruud |
| 27 Sep 2023 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 0 | Casper Ruud |
| 29 Aug 2022 | Carlos Alcaraz | 3 - 1 | Casper Ruud |
| 21 Mar 2022 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 0 | Casper Ruud |
| 05 Apr 2021 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 0 | Casper Ruud |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No bookmaker lines stored. | |||||