OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-04
⚽ La Liga 2 · Sunday 04 October 2026, 16:30 UTC · finished
Las Palmas 0.80 2 - 2 1.60 Valladolid
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 54.2%45%+8.8%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 80.2%77%+3.2%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 71.7%65%+7.1%void
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 50.7%57%-6.4%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS no 50.5%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson54.0%26.1%19.9%
xgboost50.0%30.8%19.1%
logistic55.7%26.2%18.1%
Inputs the models saw
Las PalmasValladolid
Elo (pre-match)15451392
Surface Elo15451392
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.801.60
Form trend0.10-0.20
Season points per game1.431.14
Season goals for / game1.430.86
Season goals against / game1.571.29
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)4 W0 W · 2 D
Las Palmas: last 5
04 OctARC Recreativo de Huelva0 - 4L
03 OctHLanzarote UD1 - 2L
27 SepAEibar2 - 3L
27 SepAEibar2 - 3L
20 SepHBurgos1 - 2L
Valladolid: last 5
27 SepHCordoba3 - 1W
27 SepHCordoba3 - 1W
20 SepACeuta1 - 1D
20 SepACeuta1 - 1D
13 SepHOviedo0 - 3L
Head to head
03 May 2026Las Palmas2 - 1Valladolid
14 Nov 2025Valladolid0 - 1Las Palmas
28 Feb 2025Valladolid1 - 1Las Palmas
07 Dec 2024Las Palmas2 - 1Valladolid
19 Mar 2022Valladolid0 - 1Las Palmas
15 Aug 2021Las Palmas1 - 1Valladolid
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away2.8535.1%04 Oct 17:30
Bet3651X2draw3.0033.3%04 Oct 17:30
Bet3651X2home2.5738.9%04 Oct 17:30
Bet365O/U 2.5over2.1546.5%04 Oct 17:30
Bet365O/U 2.5under1.6759.9%04 Oct 17:30
SportyBet1X2away3.2530.8%04 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.2530.8%04 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.2544.4%04 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over2.0548.8%04 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.7656.8%04 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:22 UTC