| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.8% | 60% | -10.8% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 76.6% | 85% | -7.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 65.6% | 78% | -12.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.8% | 47% | +9.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 52.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 43.5% | 28.6% | 27.9% |
| xgboost | 41.1% | 33.6% | 25.3% |
| logistic | 49.0% | 28.4% | 22.7% |
| Sheffield Weds | AFC Wimbledon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1413 | 1439 |
| Surface Elo | 1413 | 1439 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 10 Oct | A | Huddersfield | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Huddersfield | 2 - 2 | D |
| 06 Oct | H | Sunderland | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Salford | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Stockport | 0 - 0 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Plymouth | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Plymouth | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | H | Barnet | 0 - 0 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Cambridge | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Cambridge | 1 - 1 | D |
| 02 Apr 2022 | Sheffield Weds | 2 - 1 | AFC Wimbledon |
| 16 Oct 2021 | AFC Wimbledon | 2 - 2 | Sheffield Weds |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.80 | 20.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.68 | 59.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.68 | 59.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.15 | 46.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |