| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 65.8% | 82% | -15.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 42.3% | 57.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 21.0% | 78.9% |
| logistic | 45.7% | 54.3% |
| Cezar Cretu | Henrique Rocha | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1606 | 1680 |
| Surface Elo | 1606 | 1680 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 22 | 22 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | H | Henrique Rocha | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | H | Harold Mayot | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | Facundo Mena | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Aug | H | Sandro Kopp | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Aug | H | Marvin Moeller | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Inaki Montes De La Torre | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | August Holmgren | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Mili Poljicak | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Cezar Cretu | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Dusan Lajovic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Cezar Cretu | 0 - 2 | Henrique Rocha |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.24 | 80.7% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.80 | 26.3% | 29 Sep 06:15 |