| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 77.8% | 76% | +1.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 14.6% | 85.3% |
| logistic | 31.6% | 68.4% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Han Shi | Leylah Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1520 | 1742 |
| Surface Elo | 1520 | 1742 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.57 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 1.86 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.57 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | A | Alexandra Eala | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Leylah Fernandez | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Alexandra Eala | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Qinwen Zheng | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Qinwen Zheng | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Jelena Ostapenko | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Han Shi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Kamilla Rakhimova | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Han Shi | 0 - 2 | Leylah Fernandez |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.31 | 76.3% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.65 | 27.4% | 13 Oct 06:15 |