| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 50.5% | 62% | -11.3% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 75.7% | 82% | -6.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 64.3% | 77% | -13.2% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.5% | 73% | -17.5% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.3% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 27.4% | 23.0% | 49.6% |
| xgboost | 31.3% | 28.3% | 40.4% |
| logistic | 29.5% | 28.1% | 42.4% |
| Paderborn | Stuttgart | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1553 | 1690 |
| Surface Elo | 1553 | 1690 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 19 | 20 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 30 Sep | A | DC United | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Hoffenheim | 3 - 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Borussia Dortmund | 0 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Freiburg | 0 - 1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | Mainz | 0 - 0 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | SV Meppen 1912 | 1 - 1 | D |
| 01 Oct | H | Greuther Furth | 5 - 0 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Heidenheim | 3 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Borussia Dortmund | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Regensburg | 3 - 3 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.63 | 61.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.84 | 20.7% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.97 | 20.1% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.37 | 73.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.25 | 30.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |