OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-10
⚽ England League Two · Saturday 10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Port Vale 0.80 1 - 0 1.40 Grimsby
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 50.8%36%+14.4%✗ miss
DCHome or away 75.7%76%+0.1%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 64.8%51%+14.0%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 51.9%52%-0.5%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 53.8%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson32.5%29.8%37.7%
xgboost29.0%21.4%49.6%
logistic24.2%28.2%47.6%
Inputs the models saw
Port ValeGrimsby
Elo (pre-match)13941492
Surface Elo13941492
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.801.40
Form trend-0.100.50
Season points per game0.001.00
Season goals for / game0.001.33
Season goals against / game2.001.33
Rest days217
Head-to-head (last 10)1 W6 W · 2 D
Port Vale: last 5
06 OctHMansfield2 - 0W
22 SepAChesterfield1 - 1D
19 SepAWalsall0 - 2L
19 SepAWalsall0 - 2L
12 SepHExeter1 - 0W
Grimsby: last 5
06 OctHBurton0 - 0D
03 OctHShrewsbury1 - 2L
03 OctHShrewsbury1 - 2L
26 SepANewport County1 - 2L
26 SepANewport County1 - 2L
Head to head
21 Apr 2025Port Vale2 - 2Grimsby
29 Dec 2024Grimsby3 - 0Port Vale
01 May 2021Grimsby1 - 0Port Vale
09 Jan 2021Port Vale3 - 0Grimsby
24 Aug 2019Grimsby5 - 2Port Vale
26 Dec 2018Port Vale0 - 1Grimsby
06 Oct 2018Grimsby2 - 0Port Vale
10 Mar 2018Grimsby1 - 1Port Vale
07 Oct 2017Port Vale1 - 2Grimsby
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away2.7536.4%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.3330.0%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.5539.2%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.9152.4%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.8354.6%09 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 18:21 UTC