| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 47.2% | 47% | -0.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.3% | 79% | -3.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 60.5% | 64% | -3.0% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.1% | 62% | -5.6% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.9% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 32.6% | 25.1% | 42.3% |
| xgboost | 29.8% | 27.1% | 43.1% |
| logistic | 31.4% | 29.1% | 39.5% |
| Kilmarnock | Motherwell | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1591 | 1669 |
| Surface Elo | 1591 | 1669 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 0.63 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.88 | 1.13 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.25 | 1.63 |
| Rest days | 7 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 4 W · 4 D |
| 10 Oct | A | Rangers | 1 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Rangers | 1 - 3 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Hamilton | 0 - 3 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Dumbarton | 2 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Hearts | 1 - 1 | D |
| 11 Oct | H | Celtic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Celtic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Bonnyrigg Rose | 0 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Dundee | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Dundee | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Jan 2026 | Motherwell | 4 - 0 | Kilmarnock |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Kilmarnock | 1 - 3 | Motherwell |
| 30 Aug 2025 | Motherwell | 2 - 2 | Kilmarnock |
| 14 May 2025 | Motherwell | 3 - 0 | Kilmarnock |
| 05 Apr 2025 | Kilmarnock | 2 - 0 | Motherwell |
| 08 Jan 2025 | Kilmarnock | 0 - 0 | Motherwell |
| 20 Dec 2024 | Motherwell | 1 - 1 | Kilmarnock |
| 03 Feb 2024 | Motherwell | 1 - 1 | Kilmarnock |
| 04 Nov 2023 | Kilmarnock | 1 - 0 | Motherwell |
| 26 Aug 2023 | Motherwell | 2 - 1 | Kilmarnock |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 17 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 17 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.82 | 35.5% | 17 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.67 | 59.9% | 17 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 17 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.22 | 45.1% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.72 | 26.9% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.12 | 32.0% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.62 | 61.7% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |