| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 71.0% | 83% | -12.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 83.2% | 16.7% |
| logistic | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| Mateus Alves | Bruno Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1477 | 1368 |
| Surface Elo | 1477 | 1368 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 1.80 |
| Rest days | 7 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Jose Pereira | 0 - 1 | L |
| 01 Oct | H | Gonzalo Villanueva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Jose Pereira | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Gonzalo Villanueva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Munk Mesa, Bernardo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Lautaro Midon | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Lautaro Midon | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Wilson Leite | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.25 | 23.5% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.20 | 83.3% | 12 Oct 06:15 |