| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 59.7% | 68% | -7.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 64.7% | 35.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 52.2% | 47.7% |
| logistic | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| Michael Agwi | Francisco Rocha | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1526 | 1344 |
| Surface Elo | 1526 | 1344 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 675 | 24 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 18 Nov | A | Francesco Maestrelli | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 Nov | A | Enrico Dalla Valle | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Nov | A | Luca Castagnola | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Nov | H | Oscar Jose Gutierrez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Nov | A | Dennis Novak | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Tiago Pereira | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Nov | A | Andres Santamarta Roig | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Nov | H | Jay Clarke | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Alejandro Moro Canas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Aug | H | Guy Den Ouden | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 24 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.48 | 67.6% | 24 Sep 06:15 |