| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 45.5% | 42% | +3.8% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 74.2% | 75% | -0.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 58.8% | 58% | +0.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.7% | 55% | -1.5% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 48.5% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 35.1% | 28.7% | 36.2% |
| xgboost | 43.8% | 28.9% | 27.3% |
| logistic | 44.8% | 27.8% | 27.5% |
| Portsmouth | Millwall | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1545 | 1615 |
| Surface Elo | 1545 | 1615 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.60 | 1.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.40 | 1.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.20 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 3 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | A | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Oct | A | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | A | Norwich | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Norwich | 1 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | H | Sheffield Utd | 3 - 2 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Lincoln | 2 - 2 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Lincoln | 2 - 2 | D |
| 13 Oct | H | Swansea | 0 - 1 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Swansea | 0 - 1 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Preston North End | 1 - 0 | W |
| 21 Feb 2026 | Millwall | 1 - 3 | Portsmouth |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Portsmouth | 3 - 1 | Millwall |
| 05 Apr 2025 | Millwall | 2 - 1 | Portsmouth |
| 28 Jan 2025 | Portsmouth | 0 - 1 | Millwall |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.04 | 32.9% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.48 | 28.7% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.42 | 41.3% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.05 | 48.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.82 | 54.9% | 23 Oct 06:15 |