| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 52.0% | 37% | +15.4% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 76.0% | 80% | -3.7% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 66.6% | 49% | +17.3% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.0% | 64% | -9.6% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.3% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 30.4% | 27.2% | 42.4% |
| xgboost | 28.7% | 23.0% | 48.3% |
| logistic | 19.9% | 27.5% | 52.6% |
| AFC Wimbledon | Barnet | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1447 | 1588 |
| Surface Elo | 1447 | 1588 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 10 | 17 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 26 Sep | A | Cambridge | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Cambridge | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Sep | H | Milton Keynes Dons | 0 - 0 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Doncaster | 1 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Bromley | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Fleetwood Town | 3 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Fleetwood Town | 3 - 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Accrington | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Chesterfield | 3 - 3 | D |
| 01 Sep | A | Exeter | 1 - 1 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.70 | 37.0% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.35 | 42.5% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.50 | 66.7% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.55 | 39.2% | 06 Oct 06:15 |