| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 48.9% | 42% | +7.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 76.5% | 77% | -0.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 62.6% | 56% | +6.2% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.0% | 41% | +12.0% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.8% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 32.2% | 25.7% | 42.1% |
| xgboost | 25.7% | 25.2% | 49.0% |
| logistic | 31.7% | 25.3% | 43.0% |
| Liverpool | Manchester City | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1788 | 1929 |
| Surface Elo | 1788 | 1929 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 21 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 3 W · 4 D |
| 06 Oct | A | Doncaster | 0 - 1 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Rochdale | 3 - 3 | D |
| 20 Sep | A | Bournemouth | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Fulham | 0 - 0 | D |
| 04 Sep | A | Ipswich | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Sunderland | 5 - 3 | W |
| 13 Sep | A | Manchester United | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | H | Coventry | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | Crystal Palace | 4 - 1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | Bournemouth | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Feb 2026 | Liverpool | 1 - 2 | Manchester City |
| 09 Nov 2025 | Manchester City | 3 - 0 | Liverpool |
| 23 Feb 2025 | Manchester City | 0 - 2 | Liverpool |
| 01 Dec 2024 | Liverpool | 2 - 0 | Manchester City |
| 10 Mar 2024 | Liverpool | 1 - 1 | Manchester City |
| 25 Nov 2023 | Manchester City | 1 - 1 | Liverpool |
| 01 Apr 2023 | Manchester City | 4 - 1 | Liverpool |
| 16 Oct 2022 | Liverpool | 1 - 0 | Manchester City |
| 10 Apr 2022 | Manchester City | 2 - 2 | Liverpool |
| 03 Oct 2021 | Liverpool | 2 - 2 | Manchester City |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.00 | 50.0% | 11 Oct 16:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.75 | 26.7% | 11 Oct 16:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.50 | 28.6% | 11 Oct 16:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.62 | 61.7% | 11 Oct 16:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 11 Oct 16:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.32 | 43.1% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.78 | 26.5% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.07 | 32.6% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.57 | 63.7% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.50 | 40.0% | 11 Oct 06:15 |