| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.7% | 47% | +1.7% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 75.8% | 72% | +3.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 64.1% | 63% | +1.5% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.6% | 64% | +9.9% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 72.3% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 40.8% | 24.3% | 35.0% |
| xgboost | 38.0% | 34.4% | 27.6% |
| logistic | 60.0% | 23.1% | 16.8% |
| Bayern München | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1923 | 1942 |
| Surface Elo | 1923 | 1942 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 4 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | H | RB Leipzig | 6 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | RB Leipzig | 6 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Viking FK | 3 - 3 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Augsburg | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Augsburg | 2 - 2 | D |
| 18 Oct | A | Nottingham Forest | 1 - 0 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Nottingham Forest | 1 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Lille | 3 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Leeds | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Leeds | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.37 | 29.7% | 21 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.94 | 25.4% | 21 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.13 | 46.9% | 21 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.54 | 64.9% | 21 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.55 | 39.2% | 21 Oct 06:15 |