| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.1% | 39% | +13.9% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 59.2% | 40.8% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 36.0% | 63.9% |
| logistic | 58.6% | 41.4% |
| Alexandre Reco | Lorenzo Carboni | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1481 | 1415 |
| Surface Elo | 1481 | 1415 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 08 Nov | A | Gabi Adrian Boitan | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Nov | A | Andrej Nedic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Oct | H | Perez Navarro, Pablo | 0 - 1 | L |
| 21 Oct | A | Jeremy Gschwendtner | 1 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | H | Jelle Sels | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Nov | A | Leo Raquillet | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Lorenzo Angelini | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | H | Alexander Chang | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Mackenzie Mcdonald | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Luca Nardi | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.48 | 67.6% | 09 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.55 | 39.2% | 09 Nov 06:15 |